Detailed Story of the Russian Disassembly - Tuva and Altai

The other two small nation-states that have all chances to appear on the world map during the initial stage of the Russia disassembly are located in the Altai mountains region at the border crossings of 4 big countries: Russia, Mongolia, China, and Kazakhstan. This ethnically complex region is home to numerous Turkic and Mongolian tribes. This region at the moment is home of two compact living ethnicities - Tuvans (Tivvans) and Altais; both having strong aspirations for the independent nation-states and having the majority in their autonomous provices.

The first of the two to declare independence will propably be the more powerful Tuva. The current head of the Russian ministry of defense - Sergey Shoigu - is of Tuvan origin; and he did not forget for his small homeland, warranting a decent amount of russian investments into it. His power on the russian political arena can be measured by a simple fact: he is the only russian politic who stayed in power since 1991 until now non-interrupted. However, after the Russian defeat in the Russo-Ukrainian War, Sergey Shoigu risks to meet the end of his career on the russian stage. Being the prominent kleptocrat he will probably seek for the refuge in his motherland, and might become the active supporter of its independence once his defeat in the competition for power in Russia will become clear. Even without support from Shoigu the Tuvan elites publicly declared their aspirations for the independence. Thus, one way or another, it will proclaim independence as soon as Russian Civil War erupts. Soon after the small country of Altai will proclaim independence too. Most probably, Russians will not even pay attention to these events being busy with more important matters; the same way they let go a much bigger Mongolia during the First Russian Civil War with little resistance.

Tuva (Tivva) has a long history of independence dating back to the Xiongu state during anticity. The Tuva Republic was only finally occupied by Russia in 1944 and there are still people alive who remember the pre-russian period in their history. With the capital in the city Kyzyl, land area of over 170'000 sq km and population of only around 300'000 citizens (82% Tuvan, 16% Russian) Tuva will be a medium sparsely populated state, comparable to Syria or Nepal by size and to smaller Iceland or tiny Barbados by population. It is one of the few places in the world where the oriental Tengrian Shamanism is still popular, which peacefully coexists with the primary religion of Tibetan Buddhism. Tuva has a huge potential for the mining industry, in particular coal, ores, gold, jewels; however, due to bad logistics with core russian provinces it was largely underdeveloped. This could change after gaining independence and integrating into Chinese and Kazakh supply lines.

The small state of Altai (Aktash) that will consist of the Altai Republic of Russia is all that is left from the once powerful medieval state Oirat Khanate spanning wast territories. Now most of its former territory is divide between Russia, Mongolia, and China; and most of its former citizens were assimilated. Mountaineous Altai Republic is the only russian provice where Altaians still hold the large community: by 2010 officially 34% were Altai (and quickly growing), 6% Kazakh, 56% Russian (but some of them only formally, while in fact they belong to Altai ethnicity); a similarly named Altai Krai is wastly russian by now. However, Altaians have a strong desire for the nation state and will declare independence most probably together with or short after Tuva. With the total land area of around 90'000 sq km and population of just 200'000 citizens it will be a medium sparsely populated state; comparable by area to Portugal or Jordan, and by population to the tiny Samoa. Still, Altai can quickly become a transit hub between Mongolia and Kazakhstan who seek for alternative transport routes to the hegemon China. Altai economy will be focused primarily on tourism as the authentic oriental mountaineous nomad culture; still mining industries for ores, gold, silver, and lithium might also bring decent value. An interesting situation might be with the Altai capital: the only city in the state - Gorno-Altaisk - would be located just 5 km away from the border with Russia; thus, the state leaders might decide to move the capital to the safer town like e.g. Kosh-Agach with population of just around 10'000 citizens. If that happens - it would be the least populated mainland capital in the world.

Both countries may become vital allies of Mongolia who is currently landlocked between two hegemons - China and Russia. With emerging small states on the north, Mongolia will seek for mutually benefitial alliances with them to counter the ever increasing Chinese influence. That could dramatically change the geopolitical position of Mongolia from the client state to the patron state. Mongolia itself is the resource rich country with limited options for the supply market. A tiny country like Altai might become a vital trade route to Kazakhstan and beyond, a much needed alternative to the current only option to sell crude ores to either China or through China (not a big choice, indeed). Source